Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous ... is this your environment?
In a society where change and complexity is ever increasing in organisations, what are we doing to support leaders and employees to work effectively in these environments? In 2010, IBM conducted a survey with more than 1500 CEO’s globally. Whilst 80% of these leaders anticipated greater complexity in the future, less than half of them felt confident to deal with that complexity.
In the past couple of years, the concept of the VUCA environment has emerged, a term adapted from the military like to many other management concepts. This acronym stands for volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous, four key factors that commonly characterise the nature of working environments in the 21st century.
Operating in a VUCA world presents a salient challenge for leaders. How do you lead in such environments, ensuring your workforce has both the capacity to cope with such challenges as well as the capability to respond? Traditional management theory has really been based on predictable and stable organisational environments, making the development of organisational strategy a far simpler process, often with only one key objective, fixed goals with specific plans, and basic metrics, as well as one clear answer about how to proceed.
Today’s organisations are dynamic and constantly changing, often in the context of a lack of information and with many unknowns. Today effective business operation and leadership is all about complexity management. The concept of VUCA involves four distinct challenges with four distinct types of responses, though many organisations might progress through periods of more than one of these challenges, or perhaps even all four.
So what are these four factors?
- Volatility – in volatile environments change is a constant, characterised by unexpected or unstable events with unknown durations. In such environments, strategy needs to evolve, with solid degrees of adaptability and agility. The capacity to move away from fixed goals to agile organisation with a clear vision and strong communication becomes critical, with flexibility about how the vision is achieved. During experiences of volatility, try creating some slack within systems and have resources at the ready to respond. Responding to volatility can be expensive, so your investment should match the level of organisational risk.
- Uncertainty – uncertain environments are derived from large number of organisational factors, with lack of clarity about outcomes. Change is often possible but not necessarily a given. When uncertainty is high, it can be helpful to explore a range of options and solutions to organisational challenges. Consider undertaking scenario testing, with consideration for responses to a range of environmental conditions, and how these could be planned for. Invest in information and knowledge building to increase resources, and remember the impact uncertainty will have on worker health and wellbeing.
- Complexity – complex environments are driven by many complex factors that are interconnected and interdependent. In such environments, there is usually some information available with some degree of predictability, but the nature of it can be difficult to process and at times limits our capacity for control. In such environments, leaders need to step up and create the right environment in which to succeed. This can be facilitated by bringing on or developing specialists that have the expertise to address the complexity.
- Ambiguity – ambiguous environments are characterised by situations that are open to more than one interpretation, with mixed messages, confusion about cause and effect relationships and many unknown unknowns. Resolving ambiguity requires systems thinking to understand complexities and willingness and capacity to experiment, test hypotheses, and ensure lessons learned can be applied to drive positive outcomes.
Ultimately organisations need to be able to adapt to each of these challenges. If organisations are to truly become adaptable, then people need to be adaptable. Working in volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous environments is likely to create pressure that will necessarily result in degrees of stress and fatigue that will see people retreating from change and clinging to the status quo.
We need to build the capability of people to work in such environments whilst remaining flexible, agile and able to cope with the demands of working in high pressure environments. Such capabilities might include:
- - Creating, anticipating, planning for, adapting and responding to change
- - Building resilience and coping ability
- - Prioritising and managing competing demands and challenges
- - Adapting beliefs, attitudes and behaviours and adopting new ways of thinking
- - Building networks and developing positive relationships, with emphasis on support and collaboration
- - Understanding individual differences and responses to change
- - Leading successfully in a VUCA environment
The risk of not developing adaptability, agility, resilience and so forth is that organisations suffer the effects of a workforce that is not optimally productive and capable of delivery in demanding environments. These performance impacts result in decreased service quality, diminished outputs, lower return on investment, impacts to the bottom line, but importantly also increase the risks associated with psychosocial safety incidents and psychological injury due to increased stress and pressure.
This can be resolved by considering the use of strong change management frameworks that assist in both implementing strategies to address these challenges, whilst ensuring these conditions are also not created through poor change management.
For more information and support around developing change frameworks to deal with VUCA environments, please contact us on 07 3003 1473 (Australia) or email firstname.lastname@example.org